Billions Wasted? UK’s Prison Expansion Crisis Unveiled

On December 4th, The National Audit Office (NAO) released a report on the Ministry of Justice’s (MoJ) progress in tackling the prison capacity challenge in the UK. The government spending watchdog noted that MoJ has failed to ensure the number of prison places is at par with the growing number of prisoners, posing a significant challenge for His Majesty’s Prisons & Probation Service (HMPPS).

In 2021, the UK prison law compelled the Conservative administration to commit to creating 20,000 new prison places by 2026 as part of its prison crisis law. However, NAO reported that the government is unlikely to meet the deadline due to delays and that the realistic end date would be 2031. Two years before the projected deadline, HMPPS only delivered 6,518 new prison places. The spending watchdog projected a shortage of 12,400 prison places by 2027.

What is Causing the UK Prison System Delays?

According to the auditor, the delays affecting the prison expansion programme are due to several factors. One reason was MoJ’s overambitious targets. MoJ committed to building six new prisons by the mid-2020s without acquiring planning permission for three by 2021.

NAO cited poor governance and risk management as another cause for the delays. MoJ made decisions deemed necessary to expedite delivery despite acknowledging they carried additional risks. For instance, the department based full costs on estimates taken at an earlier stage. It also assessed the delivery timeline based on assumptions. Although these measures were taken to push contractors to deliver quickly, they only resulted in time slippage.

Another contributing factor was the broader government’s failure to prioritise the programme. HMPPS was optimistic that the government’s “Project Speed” initiatives aimed at fast-tracking infrastructure projects would help accelerate the expansion programme. NAO said MoJ had raised delivery risks early and expected the government to help mitigate risks, such as getting planning permission. However, when the foreseen risks materialised, it proved challenging to unblock them.

Prison Expansion Expected to Cost £4.2 Billion More

In addition to the UK prison system delays causing HMPPS headaches, expansion costs are expected to increase by 40%. This unforeseen cost increase is due to high inflation in the construction sector. HMPPS and MoJ expect the expansion plan to cost between £9.4 billion and £10.1 billion, which is £4.2 billion more than estimates given in 2021.

In addition to construction cost inflation, the cost of Rapid Deployment Cells (RDC) has risen by 250%, contributing to the budget overstretch. RDCs are prison units with a lifespan of 15 years, aimed at delivering 1,000 new prison places. MOJ planned to complete the RDC project in 2022, but it is now expected to be completed in 2026.

HMPPS’s Maintenance Costs Also Increasing

The report revealed that 23,000 prison places, or a quarter of the current places, do not meet safety standards, and HMPPS’s maintenance cost has doubled from £900 million to £1.8 billion over the past four years. Additionally, HMPPS expects its maintenance cost to increase to £2.8 billion over the next five years. HMPPS ensures that prisons are maintained in a safe condition that respects human dignity.

NAO Report Followed an Early Release Scheme

The prison population across England and Wales has risen by 93% over the past 30 years and currently stands at 87,000. This number is expected to keep growing and is projected to hit 114,800 by March 2028. The report by the auditor came shortly after Justice Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, enforced an early release scheme, which is part of UK prison law that allows early release of prisoners on good behaviour.

In October, Mahmood released 1,000 prisoners serving five years or more in the second tranche of early releases in England and Wales. She said that despite the high recall rate in the past, she does not expect the return rate to exceed 50%.

Mahmood has overseen the release of well over 5,500 prisoners, reducing the prison population by 3% to 87,000.

That notwithstanding, NAO’s report said prison capacity is projected to increase slower than the projected demand for prison places. According to the auditor, MoJ expects a shortage of 12,400 prison places by 2027 if the demand continues to grow. MoJ hopes the current sentencing review under UK prison law will help lower demand and close the widening gap.

ISG Construction’s Collapse Expected to Extend Delays

According to NAO, ISG’s collapse is expected to contribute to UK prison system delays by slowing progress on the expansion programme. NAO projects the collapse of the UK-based construction company to delay the programme by three to 18 months. ISG had been contracted to deliver 17% of MoJ’s expansion portfolio, or 3,634 prison places.

However, MoJ said the projected delay will only impact the projects the construction company was assigned. The department added that the stoppage of work at the affected sites will not affect the government’s current expansion timetable. Still, MoJ is expected to review its estimates in light of ISG’s collapse.

NAO’s Recommendations

NAO recommended that MOJ, the Home Office, HM Treasury, the Cabinet Office and other government bodies should work together to:

• Align government objectives that impact the prison population in the UK and the capacity to support these objectives;
• Provide transparency to parliament and the public by publishing capacity objectives alongside population projections; and
• Learn lessons from the current prison crisis, including the rising costs and impact on prisoner outcomes.

“The government must learn lessons from the prison capacity crisis and ensure cost-effectiveness and long-term resilience of the prison estate,” commented Gareth Davies, Head of NAO.

Conclusion 

UK prison system delays are raising questions on public accountability. The NAO has called for stronger collaboration between the MOJ and other government bodies to enhance governance, transparency and project delivery. Addressing these issues is critical to prevent further capacity shortfalls and escalating costs.

To avoid repeating past mistakes, the government must prioritise sustainable, cost-effective solutions that balance prison demand with humane living conditions, ensuring long-term resilience in the prison system as envisioned by UK prison law.

Source: The Law Society Gazette

References:

National Audit Office

The Guardian

UK Government Website – Project Speed